Stephen Ramsden

Contact

• workRoom 308 South Laboratory
  Sutton Bonington Campus
  Sutton Bonington
  Leicestershire
  LE12 5RD
  UK
• work0115 951 6078
• fax0115 951 6060
• stephen.ramsden@nottingham.ac.uk

Research Summary

Farm systems modelling

A mixed-integer-programming model, Farm-adapt, has been developed, in collaboration with Dr James Gibbons of the University of Bangor, for use in farm systems research work. The model maximises farm net margin by selecting the optimal mix of crops, animals, labour, machinery, storage, housing and irrigation for a particular type of farm and has been used in policy-related and environmentally-based research (climate change impacts on farms, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and nitrate loss). Farm-adapt has recently used as a case study in the 'Methods for the Development of Parsimonious Models' project, led by Professor Neil Crout.

Catchment modelling

A Tyndall Centre project, 'Adapting to Changing Water Availability in Agriculture and Leisure' used a dynamic version of Farm-adapt to represent two contrasting catchments, the Nar and the Wensum, in East Anglia. The work was conducted in collaboration with researchers from the universities of Nottingham, Cranfield, East Anglia and Southampton, ADAS and the Stockholm Environment Institute The model was run with a revised objective function so that outcomes from previous years' decision making were influenced by changing climatic conditions. This feature was used to assess the impact of climate on cropping and investment in irrigation capacity over time. Variability of predicted outcomes was calculated by generating yield predictions with the LARS weather generator. The Final Report is available from the Institute of Water and Environment at Cranfield University.

Farm risk modelling

Reform of the CAP has left UK farmers exposed to increased price volatility. The objective of this Defra-funded study was to quantify the extent to which it is worthwhile for farmers to manage both price and yield risk in combinable crop production through three different strategies: diversification of crop mix, trading on futures markets or crop storage. The analysis was conducted for pre- and post-Mid Term Review (MTR) policy conditions. To capture the trade-off between risk and profit in decision-making and the different methods available to farmers for managing risk, a farm level economic model was constructed using Farm Business Survey data from five case study East Midlands 'Mainly Cereals' farms. The model was used to quantify the incentive, as measured by improvement in utility, to adopt different forms of risk management on these farms.

Recent Publications

• CHERRY, K, MOONEY, SJ, RAMSDEN, S and SHEPHERD, MA, 2012. Using Field And Farm Nitrogen Budgets To Assess The Effectiveness Of Actions Mitigating N Loss To Water Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment. 147, 82-88
• GLITHERO, N, RAMSDEN, S.J. and WILSON, P., 2012. Farm systems assessment of bioenergy feedstock production: integrating bio-economic models and Life Cycle Assessment approaches Agricultural Systems. (In Press.)
• GIBBONS, JM, WOOD, ATA, CRAIGON, J, RAMSDEN, SJ and CROUT, NMJ, 2010. Semi-Automatic Reduction And Upscaling Of Large Models: A Farm Management Example Ecological Modelling. 221(4), 590-598
• RAMSDEN SJ, GHOSH S, BOHL LJ and LAPARA TM, 2010. Phenotypic And Genotypic Analysis Of Bacteria Isolated From Three Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants On Tetracycline-Amended And Ciprofloxacin-Amended Growth Media. Journal Of Applied Microbiology. 109(5), 1609-18

• View all publications

Future Research

Future research will continue in farm systems modeling, with emphasis on the efficiency of reducing environmental impacts, and in farm risk management.

• CHERRY, K, MOONEY, SJ, RAMSDEN, S and SHEPHERD, MA, 2012. Using Field And Farm Nitrogen Budgets To Assess The Effectiveness Of Actions Mitigating N Loss To Water Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment. 147, 82-88
• GLITHERO, N, RAMSDEN, S.J. and WILSON, P., 2012. Farm systems assessment of bioenergy feedstock production: integrating bio-economic models and Life Cycle Assessment approaches Agricultural Systems. (In Press.)
• GIBBONS, JM, WOOD, ATA, CRAIGON, J, RAMSDEN, SJ and CROUT, NMJ, 2010. Semi-Automatic Reduction And Upscaling Of Large Models: A Farm Management Example Ecological Modelling. 221(4), 590-598
• RAMSDEN SJ, GHOSH S, BOHL LJ and LAPARA TM, 2010. Phenotypic And Genotypic Analysis Of Bacteria Isolated From Three Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants On Tetracycline-Amended And Ciprofloxacin-Amended Growth Media. Journal Of Applied Microbiology. 109(5), 1609-18
• RAMSDEN, S.J. and GIBBONS, J., 2009. Modelling agri-environment interactions and trade-offs using Farm-adapt - integration of models, investigation of scale, dynamics and uncertainty. In: Aspects of Applied Biology, 93: Integrated Agricultural Systems: Methodologies, Modelling and Measuring Association of Applied Biologists. 280
• GHOSH S, RAMSDEN SJ and LAPARA TM, 2009. The Role Of Anaerobic Digestion In Controlling The Release Of Tetracycline Resistance Genes And Class 1 Integrons From Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants. Applied Microbiology And Biotechnology. 84(4), 791-6
• GIBBONS, J. M., COX, G. M., WOOD, A. T., CRAIGON, J., RAMSDEN, S. J., TARSITANO, D. and CROUT, N. M., 2008. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to mechanistic models: An example and comparison of methods ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING AND SOFTWARE. VOL 23(NUMBER 8), 973-985
• GIBBONS, JM and RAMSDEN, SJ, 2008. Integrated Modelling Of Farm Adaptation To Climate Change In East Anglia, Uk: Scaling And Farmer Decision Making Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment. 127(1-2), 126-134
• RAMSDEN, S.J. AND WILSON, P., 2007. Modelling Risk in Farmer Decision Making. In: M. DONNATELLI, J. HATFIELD, A. RIZZOLI, ed., Farm Systems Design 2007: Int. Symposium on Methodologies on Integrated Analysis on Farm Production Systems 1 - Farm-regional scale design and improvement. La Goliardica Pavese. 37-38 (In Press.)
• GIBBONS, J.M, AND RAMSDEN, S.J., 2007. Towards the effective representation of farmer adaptation to climate change. In: M. DONNATELLI, J. HATFIELD, A. RIZZOLI, ed., Farm Systems Design 2007: Int. Symposium on Methodologies on Integrated Analysis on Farm Production Systems 1 - Farm-regional scale design and improvement. La Goliardica Pavese. 155-156
• COX, G. M., GIBBONS, J. M., WOOD, A. T., CRAIGON, J., RAMSDEN, S. J. and CROUT, N. M., 2006. Towards the systematic simplification of mechanistic models ECOLOGICAL MODELLING. VOL 198(NUMBER 1-2), 240-246
• GIBBONS, J.M., RAMSDEN, S.J. and BLAKE, A., 2006. Modelling uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions from UK agriculture at the farm level Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 112(4), 347-355
• RAMSDEN, S. and WILSON, P., 2006. Managing Risk in UK Crop Production: A Pilot Study prepared for Defra University of Nottingham.
• WEATHERHEAD E.K, KNOX J.W, DE VRIES T.T, RAMSDEN S, GIBBONS J, ARNELL N.W, ODONI N, HISCOCK K, SANDHU C, SAICH A, CONWAY D, WARWICK C, BHARWANI S, HOSSELL J and AND CLEMENCE B., 2006. Sustainable water resources: A framework for assessing adaptation options in the rural sector. (44)
• RAMSDEN, S.J, 2006. A report on the state of farming in the East Midlands: Report prepared for the East Midlands Development Agency University of Nottingham. (In Press.)
• GIBBONS, J.M., SPARKES, D.L., WILSON, P. and RAMSDEN, S.J., 2005. Modelling optimal strategies for decreasing nitrate loss with variation in weather - a farm-level approach Agricultural Systems. 83(2), 113-134
• GIBBONS, J.M. and RAMSDEN, S.J., 2005. Robustness of Recommended Farm Plans in England under Climate Change: A Monte Carlo Simulation Climatic Change. VOL 68(NUMBER 1-2), 113-133
• JAGGARD, K.W, DEWAR, A.M and GIBBONS, J. AND RAMSDEN, S.J. (2004), 2004. Impacts of policy reform on sugar beet production and on the environment on beet producing farms in England: Report prepared for the British Beet Research Organisation.
• WILSON, P., GIBBONS, J. and RAMSDEN, S., 2003. The impact of cereal prices and policy on crop rotations and supply response Journal of Agricultural Economics. 54(2), 313-323
• GIBBONS, J.M and RAMSDEN, S.J. AND BLAKE, A., 2003. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture: socio-economic costs and impacts: DEFRA project CC0262, Final Report
• RAMSDEN, S.J., 2002. American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century: How it flourished and what it cost by Bruce L Gardner Farm Management. 12(3),
• ACKRILL, W., RAMSDEN, J. and GIBBONS, M., 2001. CAP reform and the rebalancing of support for cereals and oilseeds: a farm-level analysis European Review of Agricultural Economics. 28(2), 207-226
• RAMSDEN, S.J., GIBBONS, J., SPARKES, D.L. and WILSON, P., 2001. Predicting the Response of Farming Systems to Strategies for Controling Nitrogen Loss. Project number NT1844 submitted to DEFRA, October 2001.
• GIBBONS, J.M, RAMSDEN, S.J and SPARKES, D.L. AND WILSON, P, 2001. Predicting the response of farming systems to strategies for controling nitrogen loss: MAFF project NT1844, Final Report
• HOSSELL, J, RAMSDEN, S.J, HARRIS, D, GIBBONS, J.M, MATTHEWS, A and CLARKE, J. AND POOLEY, J., 2001. Predicting the timescale of potential farm level responses and adaptations to climate change in England and Wales: MAFF project CC0333, Final Report (In Press.)
• RAMSDEN, S. J., WILSON, P. and GIBBONS, J., 2000. Adapting to Agenda 2000 on Combinable Crop Farms Farm Management. VOL 10(NUMB 10), 606-617
• RAMSDEN, S., GIBBONS, J. and WILSON, P., 1999. Impacts of changing relative prices on farm level dairy production in the UK Agricultural Systems. VOL 62(NUMBER 3), 201-215
• RAMSDEN, S. and RODGERS, B., 1999. Attitudes of Organic Producers to different Market Outlets Farm Management. VOL 10(NUMB 7), 392-402
• SPARKES, D. L., RAMSDEN, S. J., JAGGARD, K. W. and SCOTT, R. K., 1998. The case for headland set-aside: consideration of whole-farm gross margins and grain production on two farms with contrasting rotations Annals of Applied Biology. VOL 133(NUMBER 2), 245-256
• SPARKES, D. L., JAGGARD, K. W., RAMSDEN, S. J. and SCOTT, R. K., 1998. The effect of field margins on the yield of sugar beet and cereal crops Annals of Applied Biology. VOL 132(NUMBER 1), 129-142
• WILSON, P., HADLEY, D., RAMSDEN, S. and KALTSAS, I., 1998. Measuring and Explaining Technical Efficiency in UK Potato Production Journal of Agricultural Economics. VOL 49(NUMBER 3), 294-305
• SPARKES, D.L., JAGGARD, K.W., RAMSDEN, S.J. and SCOTT, R.K., 1996. Headland set-aside in sugar beet rotations British Sugar Beet Review. 64(3), Dec-14