Kevin Lee

Contact

• workRoom B5 Sir Clive Granger Building
  University Park
  Nottingham
  NG7 2RD
  UK
• work0115 84 68386
• kevin.lee@nottingham.ac.uk
• http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/people/kevin.lee

Biography

Kevin joined the School as Professor of Economics in 2011. Prior to this, he was a Fellow of Queens' College and Senior Research Officer of the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Cambridge and then Professor of Economics at the University of Leicester. He is a Research Fellow of both the Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) and the Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics .

A full biography and access to data and publications are available from his Personal Page.

Research Summary

Kevin Lee's research interests are primarily in the econometric analysis of macroeconomic performance, business cycles, the formation of expectations, the determination of inflation and the operation… read more

Selected Publications

• COSTANTINI, M., DEMETRIADES, P., JAMES, G. and LEE, K.C., 2012. Financial Restraints and Private Investment: Evidence from a Non-Stationary Panel Economic Inquiry. (In Press.)
• GARRATT, A. and LEE, K.C., 2010. Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan Journal of International Money and Finance. 29(3), 403-422
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., MISE, E. and SHIELDS, K., 2008. Real Time Representations of the Output Gap Review of Economics and Statistics. 90(4), 792-804
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2006. Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach Oxford University Press.

• View all publications

Current Research

Kevin Lee's research interests are primarily in the econometric analysis of macroeconomic performance, business cycles, the formation of expectations, the determination of inflation and the operation of the labour market. He has a particular interest in investigating the usefulness of sectoral disaggregation in applied economics, including research on the econometric analysis of disaggregated data, the role of sectoral interactions in the analysis of persistence and business cycle fluctuations, and the analysis of wage and employment determination by industry/region/sex/age.

Recent research projects include:

• The development of a simple model of the UK economy on the project "Structural Modelling of the UK Economy within a VAR Framework using Quarterly and Monthly Data", sponsored under the ESRC's Programme in Macroeconomic Modelling;
• The analysis of actual and expected output growth in industries across the EU on the project "Expectation Formation, Business Confidence and Output Fluctuations", sponsored by the European Commission.
• The development and application of techniques for the analysis of non-linear dynamic models on the ESRC-sponsored project on the "Econometric Analysis of Non-Linear Dynamic Models with Applications in International Macroeconomics".
• The development of econometric methods for use in the analysis of `data fields' on the project "Issues in the Specification, Estimation and Testing of Models for Complex Datasets", sponsored under the ESRC's Initiative in the Analysis of Large and Complex Datasets (ALCD);
• "An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Context of a Multisectoral Model", ( Non-technical Summary), sponsored by the ESRC;
• The development of a theoretical framework suitable for the econometric analysis of disaggregated models including expectational variables on the ESRC-sponsored project on "Expectation Formation in Disaggregate Models";

• COSTANTINI, M., DEMETRIADES, P., JAMES, G. and LEE, K.C., 2012. Financial Restraints and Private Investment: Evidence from a Non-Stationary Panel Economic Inquiry. (In Press.)
• FIELDING, D., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2012. Does One Size Fit All?; Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union Economic Change and Restructuring. (In Press.)
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2011. Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? North American Journal of Economics and Finance. (In Press.)
• GARRATT, A. and LEE, K.C., 2010. Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan Journal of International Money and Finance. 29(3), 403-422
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., MISE, E. and SHIELDS, K., 2009. Real Time Representations of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Model Uncertainty International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 81-102
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C. and VAHEY, S., 2008. Real Time Probability Forecasts of UK Macro Events National Institute Economic Review. 203, 78-90
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., MISE, E. and SHIELDS, K., 2008. Real Time Representations of the Output Gap Review of Economics and Statistics. 90(4), 792-804
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2007. Overcoming Measurment Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations Economic Record. 83, 303-316
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2006. Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach Oxford University Press.
• FIELDING, D., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2004. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone Journal of African Economies. 13, 488-517
• GLEN, J., LEE, K.C. and SINGH, A., 2003. Corporate Profitability and the Dynamics of Competition in Emerging Markets: A Time Series Analysis Economic Journal. 113(491), 465-484
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2003. A Long Run Structural Macroeconometric Model of the UK Economy Economic Journal. 113(487), 412-455
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2003. Forecast Uncertainty in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy Journal of the American Statistical Association. 98(464), 829-838
• GLEN, J., LEE, K.C. and SINGH, A., 2001. Persistence of Profitability and Competition in Emerging Markets Economic Letters. 72(2), 247-253
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2000. Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations; An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1996 Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 62(4), 463-490
• VAN GARDEREN, K.J., LEE, K.C. and PESARAN, M.H., 2000. Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Non-Linear Models Journal of Econometrics. 95, 285-331
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2000. Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1998 Manchester School. 68, 75-91