Unemployment durations and subsequent labour market outcomes
There has long been interest among both scientific and academic communities in understanding the factors that affect unemployment durations, and the effects that unemployment insurance programmes and other social benefits have on the length of such spells. There are, nevertheless, a number of questions that remain to be explored when modelling unemployment durations.
In this project, we consider a number of technical innovations in duration analysis that may be extended and applied to modelling unemployment spells using individual level administrative data. These include:
- the use of semiparametric and nonparametric specifications of unemployment duration to confront the problems associated with parametric misspecification;
- the treatment of incomplete or overlapping spells in unemployment when constructing measured durations from administrative data sources;
- the use of bounds analysis when modelling unemployment patterns to overcome data deficiencies and problems in model identification.
Related publications:
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Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment by Melanie Arntz and Ralf Wilke, Regional Studies, forthcoming. 2007.
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New Insights on Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany: Censored Box-Cox Quantile Regression at Work by Bernd Fitzenberger and Ralf Wilke, ZEW Discussion Paper, No 07-007, Mannheim. 2007.
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On the Definition of Unemployment and its Implementation in Register Data – The Case of Germany by Thomas Kruppe, Eva Müller, Laura Wichert and Ralf Wilke, FDZ-Methodenreport, No 03/2007.
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