Alan Duncan joined the University of Nottingham in 1999 as a Reader in Applied Microeconometrics, and was promoted to his current position of Professor of Microeconometrics in 2001. He previously held positions at the University of York and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), where he is currently a Research Associate. He holds a visiting position at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, and has at various times been consultant to the World Bank, the OECD, the Bank of England and HM Treasury. Until 1999 he was Joint Managing Editor of the Bulletin of Economic Research. His research interests lie in the fields of welfare program evaluation; the analysis of work incentives; static and behavioural tax microsimulation; econometric models of labour supply, labour market and welfare programme participation; modelling childcare use and the impact of childcare policies; poverty and poverty alleviation; semiparametric and nonparametric estimation methods. He has published widely in these fields, with recent articles in Econometrica, Economic Journal, European Economic Review, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of Applied Econometrics and Fiscal Studies. Together with co-authors Richard Blundell and Costas Meghir, he was awarded the 2000 Frisch Medal of the Econometric Society for the best applied economics article to be published in Econometrica in the last five years.

1. "Estimating Labour Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms", Econometrica, 66, 827-862, 1998 (with Richard Blundell and Costas Meghir)

2. "Kernel Methods in Empirical Microeconomics", Journal of Human Resources, 33, 62-87, 1998. (with Richard Blundell)

3. "Semiparametric Estimation and Consumer Demand", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 13, 1-30, 1998. (with Richard Blundell and Krishna Pendakur)

4. "The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families Tax Credit", Fiscal Studies, 21, 79-104, 2000. (with Richard Blundell, Julian McCrae and Costas Meghir)

5. “Wage Functions for Demographic Groups in Australia”, Australian Journal of Labor Economics, 4, 296-316, 2001 (with John Creedy, Mark Harris and Rosanna Scutella)

6. “Welfare, Non-Linear Budget Constraints and Behavioural Microsimulation”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 16, 1-39, 2002 (with John Creedy)

7. “Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia”, Economic Record, 78, 264-276, 2002. (with Mark Harris)

8. "Microsimulation modelling of taxation and the labour market: the Melbourne Institute tax and transfer simulator". Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2002, (with John Creedy, Mark Harris and Rosanna Scutella)

9. "The Internationalisation of Public Welfare Policy”, Economic Journal, 115, C62-C81, 2005 (with James Banks, Richard Disney and John Van Reenen)

10. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain", Labour Economics, 13, 699-720, 2006 (with M. Brewer, A. Shephard and M.J. Suárez)

Publications available on this site

Alan Duncan and Graham Stark (2000), "A recursive algorithm to generate piecewise linear budget contraints", Instutue for Fiscal Studies, Working paper W00/11 [PDF download, 331KB]

Alan Duncan and Howard Reed (2000), "Meeting distributional and employment objectives using in-work benefits", paper presented to the Welfare-to-work conference held at UCL on 12th May 2000. [PDF download, 85KB]

Alan Duncan and Julian McCrae (1999), "Household Labour Supply, Childcare Costs and In-Work Benefits: modelling the impact of the Working Families Tax Credit in the UK", paper presented to the Econometric Society European Meetings, Santiag de Compostela, September 1999 [PDF download, 366Kb]

Alan Duncan and Christopher Giles (1998), "The Labour Market Impact of the Working Families Tax Credit in the UK", mimeo, Institute for Fiscal Studies (presented to the 1998 IIPF Conference, Cordoba, Argentina). [PDF download, 343Kb]

Alan Duncan and Andrew Jones (1998), "Economic Incentives and Tax Hypothecation", mimeo, University of York and Institute for Fiscal Studies. [PDF download, 312Kb]

John Creedy and Alan Duncan (1998), "Welfare, Non-Linear Budget Constraints and Behavioural Microsimulation", University of Melbourne/University of York & Institute for Fiscal Studies (prepared for the ESRI Conference "Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What Can Microsimulation Tell Us?", Dublin, 11th December 1998). [PDF download, 456Kb]

Alan Duncan and Melvyn Weeks (1998), "Simulating Transitions Using Multinomial Choice Models", mimeo, University of York/ Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge. [PDF download, 456Kb]

Other discussion papers can be downloaded from here.

L11206 Quantitative Economics II (first year)
L13520 Topics in Econometrics I (third year)
L13602 Economics of the Public Sector II (third year)
L14025 Cross-Section and Panel Data Econometrics (Masters)
L14032 Labour Economics (Masters)

A complete list of modules can be found here.

A full curriculum vitae is downloadable here. Downloads of work in progress and teaching resources may be accessed through Professor Duncan's personal website.

This page was last updated on 23/03/09 by Charlene Hill