Workshop on Uncertainty, Complexity and Predictive Reliability of Environmental/Biological Models

University of Nottingham, 14 to 16 April 2004

Scientific Programme | Workshop Arrangements | Application Form | Report | Home page

Scientific Programme

Wednesday April 14th
Session 1: Chair - Neil Crout
	Assessment of uncertainty of environmental models based on the equifinality thesis	Keith Beven
	A philosophical approach to model complexity	Jim Smith
Session 2: Chair - Tony O'Hagan
	Statistical modelling of system models and reality	Peter Craig
	Transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems	Michael Goldstein
Session 3: Chair - Andy Wood
	Uncertain models and modelling uncertainty	Marian Scott
	Is it possible to learn an epistemological lesson by practising environmental modelling?	Luigi Monte
	Accepting inadequacy, abandoning probability, assessing 'Fair Odds'	Leonard Smith
	Model Applications		Epidemiological models
	Chair: Jim Smith		Chair Subba Rao
	Modelling marine phase growth and survival of migrating Atlantic salmon Douglas Booker	Douglas Booker	Practical inference for stochastic multitype SIR epidemics among a population of households	Owen Lyne
	Case studies in gaussian process modelling of computer codes for carbon accounting	Marc Kennedy	The spatial and temporal spread of an epidemic	Lara Jamieson
	Uncertainty and decision making in biological systems	Eric Audsley	Parasites of the saiga antelope: transmission in a variable environment	Eric Morgan
	Simplifying mechanistic models	Neil Crout	Uncertainty matters for farmers and their animals	Roger Humphry
Thursday April 15th
Session 4: Chair - Clive Anderson
	Frameworks for model selection	Andy Wood
	Dominant mode analysis and the identifiability of large simulation models	Peter Young
	Modelling complex communities – measuring what matters?	Jim Bown
Session 5: Chair - Ian Dryden
	Modelling strategies for spatial-temporal data	John Kent
	Methods for adjusting spatial inference in the presence of data-location error	Noel Cressie
	Super-resolution mapping in remote sensing	Peter Atkinson
	Spatial Issues		Uncertainty in Sampling and Surveys
	Chair: Noel Cressie		Chair: Roger Payne
	Using the wavelet transform to elucidate complex spatial covariation of environmental variables	Murray Lark	A Bayesian study of ornithological surveys	Ruth King
	Spatial correlation of extreme wind speeds	Andrew Quinn	Sources of bias in aggregate studies	Ruth Salway
	Spatial predictions fitting Gaussian Markov random fields to Gaussian fields	Luigi Ippolitti	Using cross-classified multivariate mixed response models with applications to life-history traits in great tits (Parus major).	Bill Browne
	Effects of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on spatial emission inventories	Sofie Hellsten	Quantifying uncertainty associated with microbial count data: a Bayesian approach	Helen Clough
	Nonparametric estimation of spatial segregation in a multivariate point process: bovine tuberculosis in Cornwall	Pingping Zheng	Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of spatial age-dependent mortality	Ian Dryden
	Discussion session
Friday April 16th
Session 6: Chair - Keith Beven
	Prediction of wheat yields in the UK: a case study of the interaction between modelling and statistics	Roger Payne
	Individual-based modelling of fish recruitment	Jon Pitchford
	Bayesian calibration and uncertainty analysis of dynamic forest	Marcel van Oijen
Session 7: Chair - Peter Craig
	Bayesian tools for analysing and reducing uncertainty in process models	Tony O'Hagan