2.2 Calculating returns

Our first question was: what is the mean expected total return for next year? We calculate this by taking each of the possible returns and weighting it by its relative probability. As our table is so simple and symmetrical, it is not difficult to see that the weighted mean return is 7% per annum.

Our second question was: what is the degree of risk or uncertainty in this mean figure? In other words, how widely dispersed are the possible outcomes around the mean expected outcome? The most
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2.1 Looking at each of the possible alternative outcomes

Investment risk is synonymous with uncertainty of outcome, so it is logical to try to quantify risk by looking at the relative uncertainty, or probability, of each of the possible alternative outcomes.

Suppose that we are interested in investing in the shares of Company X, and want to know:

  • What is the mean or average expected total return for the next year?

  • What is the degree of risk or uncertainty in this mean figure?


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1.2 Are investors risk-averse?

We will define ‘risk premium’ as an extra reward required by investors to compensate for perceived uncertainty in the amount or timing of an expected return.

But do investors in fact require an extra premium for uncertainty, or is this perhaps just a convenient assumption?

The following activity is designed to give you an opportunity to test your own reactions.

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1.1 A note about terminology

We begin with a ‘health warning’ about terminology, this time about the use of the word ‘risk’ in finance.

The difference between the everyday and the specialised meanings of ‘risk’ is less technical and more radical than in the case of ‘return’. In everyday usage, ‘risk’ is negative – the risk of having a car accident or the risk of losing one's job. If we use ‘risk’ in a positive sense at all, it is only as a result of adopting a
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5 Summary

In this unit, the issues that arise in bringing a project to a close have been examined, and ways of evaluating a project have been discussed. The key components of project closure have been identified and discussed and their importance in ensuring that the aims and objectives of a project have been successfully attained, have been explored. You should now be able to plan an effective project closure. Problems often need to be resolved at the closure stage, and those managing projects need to
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4.2 Personal self-evaluation

You could also carry out a personal self-evaluation, to contribute to your own development as a project manager. You can develop a list of questions to evaluate your own performance:

  • Were the project objectives achieved?

  • Did the project stay within budget?

  • How were problems that occurred during the project been resolved?

  • What could you have done differently to improve the final result?

  • <
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4.1 Introduction

Managing a project provides considerable opportunities for self-development, but these can be lost if you become too immersed in delivering the project to remember that you will move on to other work once it concludes. For many managers, taking responsibility for a project is a time-bounded task with clear objectives and a fixed budget. A project usually involves managing staff, finance, operations and information across the boundaries of departments and functions, with complicated interactio
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3.8 Following up the report

The evaluation report will often contain recommendations for further actions and these may lead to new project ideas. Recommendations may relate to processes and procedures within the organisation. Project evaluation and debriefing can be a learning experience for the organisation as a whole, as well as for individuals. For example, British Petroleum gathers the lessons learnt from post-project appraisals in a series of booklets that are then used as guidance for writing project proposals. In
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6.1.3 Ensuring safety
Ever wondered how a computer processes data into information? This unit will help you to understand the distinction between the two and examines how a computer-based society impacts on daily life. You will learn what computers can do with data to produce information and how computers can be used to work with data and search for it, control machines, and support commercial operations.
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