7.4 Closing thoughts Of course, doing anything about this needs scientific evidence and understanding, but it also requires social, economic and technological changes, which can only be achieved through political will. If you want to explore some of the broader context, a good place to start would be the New Internationalist issue 357, ‘The Big Switch: Climate Change Solutions’ at New Internationalist. Faced with the sort of predictions climatologists are making, is it sufficient for science teac
7.3 Running the models forward What happens when the models are run forward? It depends upon the models used and the scenarios they are asked to run. It seems almost certain, however, that there will be increases in the global mean surface temperature, to the order of +1.5 to +4.5 °C (– possibly more, according to some models and scenarios. These changes are predicted to be associated with increases in sea level, changes to weather conditions (e.g. more regular and violent winter storms in the UK) and changes to t
7.1 Climate models To understand climate change it is necessary to construct climate models, to explore and predict interactions between different factors. Models are tested for accuracy against known sets of data, before being run forward to predict future changes.
3 Recorded temperatures Analyses of over 400 proxy climate series (from trees, corals, ice cores and historical records) show that the 1990s was the warmest decade of the millennium and the 20th century the warmest century. The warmest year of the millennium was 1998, and the coldest was probably 1601. (Climatic Research Unit, 2003) Throughout historical times, fluctuations in the Earth's mean temperature have been recorded. During the seventeenth century, the Thames periodically froze over during winter and m
2 A 4.6 billion-year history Climate change is a natural process of warming and cooling that has occurred all through the Earth's history. Throughout geological time there have been ‘hot-house’ periods and ice ages. In order to understand the current situation, it is necessary to have some sense of context and perspective, from historical and geological time-scales. The document below shows a chart showing a generalised temperature history of the Earth. Click on 'View document' to see the chart 1 Natural climate change? The chart below shows a record of the global mean surface temperature of the Earth compiled for the past 140 years. Clearly there is an upward trend, but what does a chart like this really show? References 6 Conclusion Perhaps it is a truism to say that all life is full of risk. We encounter many uncalculated outcomes, some beneficial and others adverse. It can be difficult to know which adverse events will prove permanently disadvantageous, since some may lead to innovation and opportunities for the future. Businesses, especially in the financial context, often consider risk in terms of opportunities for gain. Risk in our context is a way of describing the probability and consequences of harm, or at worst 5.3.4 Plan testing and validation It is one thing to have a plan; it is another thing to have a plan that you can rely on to work. There is an old military maxim that ‘A plan only gets you into first contact with the enemy. After that, you fly by the seat of your pants’ (Anon). A 1993 IBM report on business continuity planning confirmed this when it revealed that ‘half of the plans failed completely or substantially when they were first tested’ (IBM, 1993, p. 5). The IBM report identified three categories of pla 5.3.2 Plan auditing Having got the draft plan, it is worth checking it over to see that all the major issues have been covered. The appendix below contains a set of guidelines for the initial audit of a generic ‘general purpose’ plan. For site-specific plans such as might be produced by an SHE manager in industry, or a business continuity manager for an office complex, the headings may need some modification. Guidelines for an emergency response plan audit (PDF, 2 pages, 0.1MB) 5.7.1 Plan preparation Perhaps the first question to ask is ‘What is an emergency plan?’ Dodswell, in his guide to business continuity management, defined an ‘emergency management plan’ as simply: A plan which supports the emergency management team by providing them with information and guidelines. (Dodswell, 2000, p. 56) Another definition, of an ‘emergency preparedness plan’ prepared in the co 5.6 Business continuity planning An organisation's strategy regarding insurance for its business risks is no substitute for high-quality risk management and emergency preparedness to address all contingencies. Some incidents we have mentioned above. Others may involve IT security for example. While the day-to-day activity of an organisation may not be particularly hazardous, it can still be affected by a hazard not of its own making. Examples might be a natural disaster such as flooding, or a hazardous activity on an adjacen 5.5 Emergency planning as an organisational management function If emergency services' EPOs plan to respond to other people's emergencies, people managing a business activity with major incident potential have a different perspective. They have to respond to emergencies within their own organisation. In effect, if an incident occurs, the organisation is itself in a crisis, with functionality impaired. All of this comes into the corporate governance area and the implications of internal control. This requires companies to ensure that they have a sound syst 5.4 Emergency planning as a public protection activity Uniformed emergency services – police, fire authorities and ambulance services – and organisations such as NHS hospitals, have an obvious role in the response to civil emergencies. Local authorities have an important, although less clearly defined, role. This is based on a mixture of specific legal duties coupled to a general ‘duty of care’ to maintain essential services even in an emergency. Much of this section describes the work of local authority emergency planning officers (EPOs) 5.3 Emergency planning as a formal requirement Several pieces of legislation make the preparation of emergency plans a statutory requirement. The European Directive on the control of major accident hazards (Council of the European Union, 1996a), the ‘Seveso II Directive’, outlines the planning requirements for industrial sites with large inventories of hazardous substances. In the UK, the requirements of this directive have been incorporated into the Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations (Health and Safety Executive, 1999a). I 5.1 Introduction Much of this unit is about risk, but as we have seen, it is a word with different interpretations – the risk of harm, the chance of gain or simple uncertainty, for example. So it may be seen as a balance between conformance and performance in an organisation. Although functional emphasis and management boundaries are inherently flexible, risk linked to harm typically represents the perspective of managers responsible for conformance activities – particularly, the financial controller, int 4.2.1 Comparing the management systems One approach to BS 8800 follows the ISO 14001 model, and the ISO 14001 system itself was closely modelled on the previous ISO 9000, with the 2000 revision of ISO 9000 following ISO 14001 principles. As a result, you may imagine that there are similarities between the standards. Many of the elements are similar, and some are nearly identical. Management systems share common elements, including developing and documenting procedures, training, record keeping, auditing, and corrective action. Fig 4.2 Why integrate management systems? Integrating any management system with the business is essential if progress is to be made, but here we are concerned with integrating management systems with each other. Managing a business continues to set new challenges and demands especially when viewed against: significant competition; high customer and community expectations; returns on capital employed; regulatory compliance; 4.1 Introduction Annual costs to employers from accidental injury and occupational illness are on the order of 5–10 per cent of the gross profits of UK industry. The total social cost, including the cost of benefits and National Health hospitalisation and treatment, make this a truly staggering drain on the nation's coffers! 3.2 Multiple causes Now we will explore multiple causes using an example familiar to us all – road accidents. The deaths of about 10 people each day on the UK's roads are less dramatic than, for example, the capsize of the Herald of Free Enterprise, but one feature that links them both is the element of risk associated with everything we do – and even with inaction. We have just seen that many factors contribute to the risks which result from the inherent hazards associated with something we do.
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