Refined Limit on the Predictability of Human Movement
Understanding upper bounds on how predictable human travel is important for both understanding and planning for human movement in both urban and urban environments. Additionally such bounds enable designers of applications and services that rely on accurate prediction of human movement to understand and work around the constraints with which they are faced.
It has been recently claimed that human movement is ‘highly predictable’ upper bound of 93% predictability shown. However, knowing an upper bound is only useful if it is relatively tight, i.e. it is close to the true limit of predictability. In this work N/LAB reconsiders the derivation of the upper bound to movement predictability and by considering real-world topological constraints we are able to achieve a tighter upper bound.
Our results show that the upper bound is actually between 11-24% less than previously claimed.