EPOP 2017 Conference
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Conference Papers

Friday 8 September

Panel Session 1

1.1 Brexit and identity

The role of religion in Brexit
Stuart Fox

Connectedness, identity and values: Understanding the divides behind Brexit
Paula Surridge, Siobhan McAndrew, and Neema Begum

National identity, social class and attitudes to Brexit in Northern Ireland
Jon Tonge 

Ethnic minority support for leaving the European Union
Nicole Martin and Maria Sobolewska

1.2 Wales 

What is your type? The effects of candidate type on their campaign behaviour
Siim Trumm

Examining trends in party campaigning at different order elections: Wales 2010-17
David Cutts, Jac Larner, Roger Scully, and Ron Johnston

Measuring public attitudes to devolution
Roger Scully

1.3 Voter turnout 

It’s a group thing: How voters go to the polls together
Ed Fieldhouse, Yosef Bhatti, and Kasper Hansen

Apportioning the blame for turnout decline in Eastern Europe: Changing elections or generational replacement?
Ksenia Northmore-Ball and Mark Franklin

Political engagement: Evidence from the UK’s longitudinal studies
Alison Park and David Church

The Consequences of Increasing Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Evidence from Concurrent Elections in Germany
Arndt Leininger and Lukas Rudolph

1.4 Teaching undergraduate quantitative research methods: Software choices 

R
Scott Moser 

SPSS
Raul Gomez

Excel
Helen Williams


Panel Session 2

2.1 The 2017 general election I 

Visiting voters: Leader visits at the 2017 general election
Alia Middleton 

Leaflet messaging during the 2017 general election campaign
Caitlin Milazzo , Jesse Hammond, and Joshua Townsley

One Show? Exploring whether and how the two major parties reasserted their dominance of news media coverage in the 2017 General Election
Dominic Wring, David Deacon, John Downey, David Smith, and James Stanyer

Digital campaigning at the 2017 general election
Kate Dommett and Luke Temple

2.2 Forecasting recent elections 

A postmortem on forecasts for the 2017 British general election
Stephen Fisher, John Kenny , and Rosalind Shorrocks

Forecasting the 2017 German election
Roland Kappe

Predicting the results of the 2016 US presidential election
Martyn Hill 

2.3 Party membership

The secret of leaving: Who quits their party and why? Grassroots members in the U
Tim Bale, Paul Webb, and Monica Poletti

Multi-speed membership parties in practice: A membership survey of Podemos
Raul Gomez and Luis Ramiro

Who are the ‘crackpots’? Analysing the Democratic Unionist Party’s membership and voting base
Jon Tonge and Raul Gomez

"It's just a step to the left": Ideology, independence and the 2014 party membership surge in Scotland
Lynn Bennie, Rob Johns and James Mitchell

2.4 Winners and losers

Having a say or getting what you want: Tax morale, political participation, and losers’ consent in a multi-country experiment
Jonathan Mellon, Fredrik Sjoberg, Johannes Hemker, and Tiago Peixoto

Voting for losers and support for electoral reform: Evidence from Great Britain 
Christopher Prosser

Democratic discontent in a majoritarian setting: What kind of democracy do British citizens want (but feel they are not getting)?
Ben Seyd

The consequences of repeatedly losing on legitimacy beliefs
Ann-Kristin Kölln and Anna Kern 

Saturday 9 September

Panel Session 3

3.1 What do citizens want from Brexit? 

What “Brexit Means Brexit” means to citizens
Sara Hobolt

Red lines and compromises: Identity and public opinion on the Brexit negotiations
Lindsay Richards

You can't always get what you want: Studying public opinion on multidimensional policies in the context of Brexit
Carolina Plescia and Magdalena Staniek

3.2 Political elites I 

The legacy of egalitarian political institutions on support for women politicians
Anja Neundorf and Rosalind Shorrocks

Party system institutionalization and choice of cabinet ministers in Asian democracies
Don S. Lee and Fernando Casal Bertoa 

Evidence of candidate quality in UK parliamentary elections
Jennifer Hudson and Caitlin Milazzo

Who likes independent-minded MPs? Approval of legislator dissent in Austria, Germany, and the United Kingdom Markus Wagner, Nick Vivyan, and Konstantin Glinitzer

3.3 Campaigns I

"How does politics affect perceptions of place? The effect of campaigns on perceptions about immigration
Jake Bowers, Ed Fieldhouse, Jane Green, and Cara Wong

#Brexit. Analyzing tweets, surveying tweeters to understand public opinion dynamics during the EU Referendum campaign
Heinz Brandenburg, Marcel van Egmond, and Rob Johns

‘Knock-Knock’: The role of personal contact between local parties and voters during election campaigns in Britain Joshua Townsley

The information and persuasion effects of accurate and inaccurate claims in advertising
Daniel Stevens and Gabriel Katz


Panel Session 4

4.1 EU referendum vote choice I 

Brexit and political choice in Britain
 Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley

Old fractures for new generations? The role of social class in young people’s vote choice in the Brexit referendum Davide Angelucci

Brexit and the New Labour Legacy: The Partisan and Socioeconomic Roots of the Leave Vote
Jonathan Mellon, Christopher Prosser, and Geoff Evans

An explanation for Brexit
James Dennison, Geoff Evans, and Noah Carl 

4.2 Political elites II 

Exploring variation in political ambition across a multi-level political opportunity structure
Peter Allen and David Cutts

Public profiles and promotions for government ministers in East Asia
Don S. Lee and Paul J. Schuler 

Ideology and the UK far right
John Meadowcroft and Elizabeth Morrow

The role of political elites in lowering support for welfare provision: Evidence from British parliamentary speeches from 1987-2015
Tom O'Grady

4.3 Media and advertising 

What the fact? An experiment on the political persuasiveness of experts' advices
Berta Barbet Porta, Antoni-Italo de Moragas and Guillem Vidal

Addressing the conditioning of voters’ perceptions of political pluralism in the media: Evidence from a panel study
Anne Jadot

Does political advertising mislead voters?
Daniel Stevens and Barbara Allen

Pursuing the personal vote on new media: A comparison of parliamentary candidates in the United Kingdom and Japan
Sean Vincent 

4.4 Defection 

Defecting from the incumbent: motivated reasoning versus economic voting in the Spanish Election of 2015
Javier Martínez-Cantó  and Nadja Wehl

Should we stay or should we go? Explaining the role of primary loss on voter defection in the 2017 French presidential elections
Jae-Jae Spoon and Zachary D. Greene

Leaving Labour: Values, valence and vote switching
Paula Surridge

The limits of democratic control: Three decades of retrospective voting in the United Kingdom
Konstantin Glinitzer


Panel Session 5

5.1 Measuring ideology 

The changing structure of ideology in Europe
Heinz Brandenburg and Zachary Greene

The sources of complexity: Measuring and explaining the dimensionality of party ideological perceptions
Royce Carroll and Hiroki Kubo

Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981 - 2014
Tom O'Grady, Devin Caughey, and Chris Warshaw

The foundations of the spatial model: Estimating the distance metric
Ugur Ozdemir

5.2 Issue positions I

Mapping the New Politics: Dimensions of Political Attitudes in Uncertain Times
Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon

Strength of party support and perceptions of issue proximity
Philipp Dreyer

Assessing the validity of environmental protection measures in the British Election Study
John Kenny

Constraining change or changing constraints? Attitude-predisposition relations after employment status changes
Nadja Wehl

5.3 Congruence 

Elite/mass attitudinal congruence before and after Brexit: A case study of representational responsiveness
Rosie Campbell, Jane Green, and Jennifer Hudson

Similar yet different: Patterns and causes of gender differences in opinion-policy congruence in Europe
Stefanie Reher

The dynamics of representation: A comparative assessment of elite-public opinion interaction on the verge of the economic crisis in Europe
Kaat Smets and Pierangelo Isernia

The mandate divide: Examining representative responsiveness in the devolved UK
Alex Parsons

5.4 Political elites III

Does 'May's law' apply to 21st century British political parties?
Peter Allen, Tim Bale, Rosie Campbell, Jennifer Hudson, Chrysa Lamprinakou, Monica Poletti, and Paul Webb

Electoral violence and partisan advantage: The Turkish case
Emre Toros and Sarah Birch

The UK Co-operative Party and New Labour: Three models of policy influence
Sean Kippin

Jobs for the boys? How MPs’ pre-parliamentary career affect their frontbench prospectWang
Leung Ting


Panel Session 6

6.1 Campaigns II

Candidate-centred campaigning in the 2015 general election
Caitlin Milazzo, Joshua Townsley, and Jesse Hammond

Do issue primes affect vote choice? Results from a field experiment in the 2017 General Elections
Florian Foos and Peter C. John

The Independence Echo: the rise of the constitutional question in Scottish election manifestos and voter behaviour Zachary Greene, Fraser McMillan, and Kenneth Stevenson

6.2 Insights from qualitative research into voting behaviour 

Popular leader evaluations across two UK general elections: A qualitative analysis of focus group data using Crowdflower
Kristi Winters, Thom Oliver, and Edzia Carvalho

When and how do voters tune in – or out? Social and political biases in the reception of the (eventful!) 2017 French presidential election
Anne Jadot, Pierre Lefébure, and Claire Sécail

Are partisan voters just like loyal sports fans? An exploration of voters’ partisanship using QESB data
Kristi Winters, Edzia Carvalho, and Thom Oliver

6.3 Vote choice II 

Having a say or getting your way: The impact of expressive and instrumental political choice
Sara Hobolt, Julian Hoerner, and Toni Rodon

On being a voter: Developing survey measure of expressive voting
Ed Fieldhouse

Do Remainers move to Islington? Partisan residential sorting in the UK
Eric Kaufmann

Effects of candidates’ names on voting patterns in the Scottish local government elections in 2012 and 2017
James Gilmour

6.4 The 2017 general election II 

Voter experience at the (many) 2017 elections
Phil Thompson

Twice in a row? UK party members’ campaign activity in the 2015 and 2017 general elections compared
Tim Bale, Paul Webb, and Monica Poletti

The Liberal Democrats and the ‘Brexit Election’: If they can’t win now, when can they win?
David Cutts and Andrew Russell

An analysis of the constituency results for the 2017 British general election
John Curtice, Patrick English, Stephen Fisher, and Robert Ford

Sunday 10 September

Panel Session 7

7.1 Elites and Brexit 

British MPs after the EU membership referendum: Principles, party politics and public opinion  
Chris Stafford

Fighting the ‘Federasts’: Assessing the Impact of Eric Forth's Euroscepticism, 1979-2006
Mark Stuart 

Parties, Parliament and the Brexit Process
Richard Whitaker, Philip Lynch, and Adam Cygan

7.2 Populism 

Two of a kind? Populism and political cynicism compared
Irene Esteban and Koen Abts

Attitudes to Democracy and Support for Radical Parties in Europe
Caroline McEvoy

Can narratives of white identity reduce support for Hard Brexit and Trump?
Eric Kaufmann 

Do populist parties increase turnout?
Maurits Meijers and Arndt Leininger

7.3 Party positions 

Deconstructing blurring: party strategy in a multidimensional environment
Jelle Koedam

Capturing Party Policy Shifts: BREXIT, Corbyn and the BES expert survey
Thomas Loughran

Defining and identifying the centre party
Nick Barlow

7.4 Satisfaction with Democracy 

The consequences of procedural fairness perceptions: The case of the UK's EU referendum
Cees van der Eijk

Education, class and democratic satisfaction in UK ethnic minorities
Rakib Ehsan

How do post-Soviet citizens view democracy? Democratic knowledge and support in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus Emily Look

Mind this gap, too: Resources, representation, and political orientations of citizens with disabilities
Stefanie Reher  


Panel Session 8

8.1 Electoral competition 

Federalism and party system fragmentation: On the unintended consequences of increasing decentralization
Florian Foos and Daniel Bischof

Long-term and short-term evolution of electoral competition in Britain
Cees van der Eijk

Intra-camp electoral competition and electoral performance in authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong legislative elections from 2004 to 2016
Nick Or and Stan Hok-Wui Wong 

The end of the “winner’s bonus”? A study of Labour-Conservative marginals at the 2015 UK General Election
Chris Butler

8.2 Issue positions II 

The European debt crisis and the role of Europe in Portugal
Britta Baumgarten and Vicente Dinis Valentim

Generational change and attitudes to immigration in the UK
Lauren McLaren and Ian Paterson

Explaining variation in public opinion to immigration in Europe
James Dennison, Andrew Geddes, and Teresa Talò

8.3 EU referendum vote choice II 

Ethnic minority voting behaviour in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election
Neema Begum

How the transmission of parental preference affected vote choice in the EU referendum
Stuart Fox

Disaggregating preferences: How referendum voting differs from parliamentary voting 
Richard Rose

The generational gap in EU support: A cross-national perspective
Rosalind Shorrocks and Roosmarijn de Geus

8.4 Strategic voting 

Confounding Duverger: Why don’t Indians vote tactically?
Oliver Heath 

Networks, Turnout, and Strategic Voting in the 2015 Canadian Election
Debra Leiter and Jack Reilly

Taking Real Ballots Seriously: Modeling Heterogeneous Choice Sets in the 2015 UK Elections
Ingrid Mauerer, Paul W. Thurner, and Annemarie Walter

Volatile voters and stuttering centrists: A party-centric approach to explaining rising levels of vote-switching
Zack Grant

EPOP 2017 Conference

The University of Nottingham
University Park
Nottingham
NG7 2RD

telephone: +44 (0) 115 951 4848
email: epop@nottingham.ac.uk