NICEP Seminar: Natalya Naumenko (George Mason University)

The political economic causes of the Soviet Great Famine, 1932–33

Abstract:  This paper investigates the hypothesis that ethnic Ukrainians suffered higher famine mortality as a result of state policy during the Soviet Famine (1932-33) with a newly assembled dataset. We document that pre-famine resistance to collectivisation was increasing in Ukrainian population share and famine mortality rates were positively associated with ethnic Ukrainian population share across provinces and districts within provinces. This is true controlling for a large number of other factors (e.g., weather, geography, demographic structure pre-famine political conditions). We provide evidence consistent with the regime targeting Ukrainians to control grain production, rather than an intent to exterminate Ukrainians per se. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that bias against Ukrainians explains up to 77% of famine deaths in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus and up to 92% in Ukraine.