NICEP Seminar: Andrea Tesei (Queen Mary University of London)

Title:  The international transmission of democratic values: Evidence from African migration to Europe (with M Manacorda and J Ponticelli)

 Abstract

This paper investigates how rising anti-immigrant sentiment in host countries shapes perceptions of host-country institutions within migrants’ origin communities. Focusing on African migration to Europe, we propose a novel methodology to estimate migration stocks from subnational regions in Africa to countries worldwide using Google Trends data. We combine these estimates with electoral outcomes that capture the success of anti-immigrant parties in Europe to construct African region-specific measures of exposure to anti-immigrant sentiment at destination. Our results show that increases in anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe led to a deterioration in democratic attitudes among African citizens, with effects concentrated in non-democratic countries. Consistent with the idea that these effects operate through migrant networks, we find evidence of worsened labor market outcomes and declining support for democracy among African migrants in Europe. We conclude that growing anti-immigrant sentiment in Western democracies can hinder migrant integration and weaken support for host-country institutions, thereby undermining democratic progress at origin.