Senior Academic Seminar: Anna Dreber Almenberg (Stockholm School of Economics)

Prediction replication outcomes

Abstract:  Why are there so many false positive results in the published scientific literature? And what is the actual share of results that do not replicate in different literatures in the experimental social sciences? I will discuss several recent large replication projects on direct and conceptual replications, as well as our studies on “wisdom-of-crowds” mechanisms like prediction markets and forecasting surveys where researchers attempt to predict replication outcomes as well as new outcomes.