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INVITATION TO SEMINAR

 Assessing the Vulnerability of Nuclear Power Generating Plant to Volcanic Ash

 

Abstract: Eruptions of the Icelandic volcanoes Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011) caused ash to be dispersed across NW Europe. These events highlight the need for future ash hazard probabilities to be assessed quantitatively for European countries (and elsewhere), and for comprehensive appraisals of potential consequences for critical infrastructure, economic continuity and other societal impacts. In this talk, I will summarise results from a project conducted as part of the Natural Environment Research Council Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme which made a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of volcanic ash to UK nuclear-generating plant. This assessment consisted of a probabilistic forecast of the likelihood of ash generated in eruptions from regional volcanoes reaching the UK, an evaluation of the hazard at particular sites in the UK, and an expert judgement exercise conducted with EDF Energy staff to convert the hazard probability into estimates with uncertainty of the susceptibility of key items of plant infrastructure. I will summarise key findings including the expected levels of volcanic ash impacts for UK from future eruptions and use of probabilistic fault-tree approaches to quantify likelihood of maintenance or failure of critical infrastructure items.

Biography: I am a physical volcanologist with broad interest in environmental hazard, risk and resilience. I followed an undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering with a PhD in Environmental Fluid Mechanics, and started research into the fluid dynamics of volcanic processes as a postdoc. My physical science expertise is mainly in fluid dynamics and volcanic processes, including fundamental processes of explosive volcanic eruptions, and multiphase environmental flows including volcanic ash transport, and dynamics of suspensions and granular flows. My main career focus has been the prediction of volcanic hazards and their impacts, including volcanic ash transport, lahars and landslides, volcanic gases and crater lakes. I now work across disciplines to integrate hazard assessment with social and physical vulnerability, risk management structures and community engagement, with social scientists, engineers, mathematicians and statisticians.