There has long been a concern that large net inflows of property income or income transfers (such as aid and remittances) pull up the real exchange rate and thus divert resources away from the tradables sector (the so-called Dutch disease effect), although the empirical evidence is somewhat mixed. Using annual data for a large sample of countries back to 1971, it is shown here that the long-run effect of an improvement in the non-trade elements of the current account balance is real exchange rate appreciation and a deterioration of the trade balance.
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Michael Bleaney and Mo Tian
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