Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)

CFCM 22/04: Fire sales and ex ante valuation of systemic risk: A financial equilibrium networks approach


We introduce endogenous fire sales into a simple network model. For any given initial distribution of shocks across the network, we develop a clearing algorithm to solve for the financial equilibrium. We then utilise the results to perform ex ante risk assessment and derive risk premia for every balance sheet item where liabilities are differentiated according to priority rights. We find that risk premia reflect both idiosyncratic risk and risk of contagion (network risk). Moreover, we show that network risk magnifies the gap between the risk premia of equity and debt. We also perform comparative statics, showing that changes to the distribution of shocks and network structure can have substantial effects on the level of systemic losses.

Download the PDF of this paper


Spiros Bougheas and Adam Hal Spencer


View all CFCM discussion papers

Posted on Friday 18th November 2022

Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics

Sir Clive Granger Building
University of Nottingham
University Park
Nottingham, NG7 2RD

Enquiries: hilary.hughes@nottingham.ac.uk