Forced displacement, human capital, and structural transformation (with Gorgio Chiovelli, Stelios Michalopoulos and Sandra Sequiera)
Abstract : We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on investments in human capital and occupational choice, looking at the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), one of the largest and most diverse forced displacement episodes in recent times. Exploiting the full post-war Census, we trace the trajectories of more than 4 million individuals, about a third of the country's population. The civil war entailed all sorts of displacement; many peasants fled to the cities, refugee camps in neighboring countries, and other rural areas. There was also urban-to-rural displacement. We first provide correlational evidence that internal displacement in urban centers, and, to a lesser extent, in other rural areas goes handy with educational investments and an employment out-of-agriculture towards services.
In contrast, refugees in nearby countries have similarly low education levels to peasants staying in their birth-regions. Reversely, urban-dwellers moving to the countryside have lower education. Second, to overcome selection and account for household features, we compare the displacement experience of siblings separated during the war. Children displaced into urban areas were more likely to invest in education and later experience a shift towards occupations outside of agriculture, even when they returned to the countryside once the war was over. Displacement in neighboring countries yields no discernible differences in education and occupational specialization than rural non-movers. These patterns hold even when restricting our sample to twins and siblings of the same gender and age group. Third, we explore heterogeneity to shed light on the channels. Children whose parents and grandparents are literate benefit somewhat more when moving to the new environment. Likewise, education investments and structural transformation are more substantial for internally displaced to areas with higher levels of human capital, population density, and market access. Forth, we report on a self-conducted survey in Mozambique's largest Northern city that aims to uncover the long-run impact of forced displacement. Displaced individuals have significantly higher education than their siblings elsewhere. Displaced individuals seem to have integrated socially into urban areas, having comparable to non-mover city-dwellers views and attitudes.
Nevertheless, internally displaced people have lower mental health levels, inter-community trust and are less optimistic than city dwellers not displaced during the war. These findings underscore how forced displacement can act as a mobility shock that breaks links with subsistence agriculture, increases education investments, and increases human capital accumulation. However, it may come at the cost of decreased mental health.