Simon Gosling

Contact

• workRoom A7 Sir Clive Granger Building
  University Park
  Nottingham
  NG7 2RD
  UK
• work0115 951 5437
• simon.gosling@nottingham.ac.uk

Research Summary

My main interests are in understanding the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems, and bridging the boundary between physical science and impact and policy-related areas.

Much of my current research investigates the potential impact of climate change on global- and catchment-scale hydrology and water resources. I am interested in understanding how average conditions and extremes (floods and droughts) might be affected by climate change. I apply a variety of climate and hydrological numerical models to achieve this. I also have strong interests in modeling the relationship between climate and human health; specifically, on the association between extreme temperature events (heat waves and cold snaps) and temperature-related mortality.

An emerging theme of my climate change impacts research is the investigation of the possible benefits of climate change mitigation policy. This typically involves comparing numerical simulations of climate change impacts under 'no policy' scenarios with various 'mitigation' scenarios where global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced via climate change mitigation policy.

A key element throughout all my research is exploring the inherent uncertainties in climate change impact projections, due to, for instance, uncertainties associated with the current state of science on climate modelling, hydrological modelling, and health modelling. I am interested in exploring novel ways to both consider and present these uncertainties for application in policy- and decision-making processes.

Selected Publications

• GOSLING SN, MCGREGOR GR, LOWE JA, 2012. The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates Climatic Change. 112(2), 217-231
• GOSLING SN, BRETHERTON D, HAINES K, ARNELL NW, 2010. Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty: Running Multiple Ensembles with a campus grid Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: A. 368(1926), 4005-4021
• GOSLING SN, TAYLOR RG, ARNELL NW, TODD MC, 2011. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 15, 279-294
• HADDELAND I, CLARK DB, FRANSSEN W, LUDWIG F, VOß F, ARNELL NW, BERTRAND N, BEST M, FOLWELL S, GERTEN D, GOMES S, GOSLING SN, HAGEMANN S, HANASAKI N, HARDING R, HEINKE J, KABAT P, KOIRALA S, OKI T, POLCHER J, STACKE T, VITERBO P, WEEDON GP, YEH P, 2011. Multi-Model Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results Journal of Hydrometeorology. 12, 869-884

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Past Research

Walker Institute, University of Reading (May 2008 - January 2011); Research Fellow: I worked on the UK NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) QUEST-GSI (Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System - Global Scale Impacts) project to investigate the impacts of climate change on global hydrology and water resources.

Department of Geography, King's College London (September 2005 - April 2008); PhD candidate: my Ph.D. research assessed the impacts of climate change on heat related motality. I developed and validated statistical models that describe the relationship between daily temperature and heat-related mortality, separately for Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. Temperature projections from climate models were applied to the health models to estimate future heat-related mortality for each city.

Met Office Hadley Centre (July 2004 - August 2005): I worked as a member of the Climate Prediction Team. My main responsibility involved writing and using climate analysis and visualisation software (IDL/PV-Wave) to support other research scientists and to contribute climate model data for the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Other research included an assessment of greenhouse gas stabilisation scenarios.

• GOSLING SN, MCGREGOR GR, LOWE JA, 2012. The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates Climatic Change. 112(2), 217-231
• SIMELTON E, FRASER EDG, TERMANSEN M, BENTON TG, GOSLING SN, SOUTH A, ARNELL NW, CHALLINOR AJ, DOUGILL AJ and FORSTER PM, 2012. The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food.
• GOSLING SN, ARNELL NW, 2011. Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation and sensitivity analysis Hydrological Processes. 25, 1129-1145
• TODD MC, TAYLOR RG, OSBORN TJ, KINGSTON DG, ARNELL NW, GOSLING SN, 2011. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 15, 1035-1046
• GOOD, P, CAESAR, J, BERNIE, D, LOWE, JA, VAN DER LINDEN, P, GOSLING, SN, WARREN, R, ARNELL, NW and SMITH, S ET AL., 2011. A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system Progress in Physical Geography. 25(3), 281-296
• HADDELAND I, CLARK DB, FRANSSEN W, LUDWIG F, VOß F, ARNELL NW, BERTRAND N, BEST M, FOLWELL S, GERTEN D, GOMES S, GOSLING SN, HAGEMANN S, HANASAKI N, HARDING R, HEINKE J, KABAT P, KOIRALA S, OKI T, POLCHER J, STACKE T, VITERBO P, WEEDON GP, YEH P, 2011. Multi-Model Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results Journal of Hydrometeorology. 12, 869-884
• GOSLING SN, TAYLOR RG, ARNELL NW, TODD MC, 2011. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 15, 279-294
• GOSLING, SN, WARREN, R, ARNELL, NW, GOOD, P, CAESAR, J, BERNIE, D, LOWE, JA, VAN DER LINDEN, P, O'HANLEY, JR and SMITH, SM, 2011. A Review Of Recent Developments In Climate Change Science. Part Ii: The Global-Scale Impacts Of Climate Change
• GOSLING SN, BRETHERTON D, HAINES K, ARNELL NW, 2010. Global Hydrology Modelling and Uncertainty: Running Multiple Ensembles with a campus grid Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: A. 368(1926), 4005-4021
• GOSLING, SN, 2010. ISB News January 2010 International Journal of Biometeorology. 54(1), 113
• GOSLING SN, LOWE JA, MCGREGOR GR, PELLING M, MALAMUD BD, 2009. Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature Climatic Change. 92, 299-341
• GOSLING, SN, MCGREGOR, GR and LOWE, JA, 2009. Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change. International Journal of Biometeorology. 53(1), 31-51
• GURNELL A, MOGGRIDGE H, MCGREGOR GR, GOSLING SN, JONES A, 2008. A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
• MCGREGOR GR, PELLING M, WOLF T, GOSLING SN, 2007. The social impacts of heat waves (ISBN:978-1-84432-811)
• GOSLING, SN, MCGREGOR, GR and PÁLDY, A, 2007. Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 1: model construction and validation. International Journal of Biometeorology. 51(6), 525-40