Kevin Lee

Contact

• workRoom B5 Sir Clive Granger Building
  University Park
  Nottingham
  NG7 2RD
  UK
• work0115 84 68386
• kevin.lee@nottingham.ac.uk
• https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/~lezkl/

Biography

Kevin joined the School as Professor of Economics in 2011 and was Head of School 2012-18. Prior to joining Nottingham, he was a Fellow of Queens' College and Senior Research Officer of the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Cambridge and then Professor of Economics at the University of Leicester. He is a Research Fellow of both the Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) and the Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics .

A full biography and access to data and publications are available from his Personal Page. Kevin's complete CV can be downloaded here in pdf format.

Research Summary

Kevin Lee's research interests are primarily in the econometric analysis of macroeconomic performance, business cycles, the determination of inflation and the operation of the labour market. He has a… read more

Selected Publications

• ARISTIDOU, C., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2019. Evaluating the Use of Real-Time Data in Forecasting Output Levels and Recessionary Events in the US Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A). 182(1), 131-163
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2018. The Role of Uncertainty, Sentiment and Cross-Country Interactions in G7 Output Dynamics Canadian Journal of Economics. 51(2), 391-418
• LEE, K.C., MORLEY, J. and SHIELDS, K., 2015. The Meta Taylor Rule Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 47(1), 73-98
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2012. Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach Second Edition. Oxford University Press.

• View all publications

A full biography and access to data and publications are available from my Personal Page.

Current Research

Kevin Lee's research interests are primarily in the econometric analysis of macroeconomic performance, business cycles, the determination of inflation and the operation of the labour market. He has a particular interest in investigating the use of models in decision-making and forecasting, including the use of real-time and survey data. His research often focuses on the role of interdependencies in applied economics, including work on cross-country interactions in global systems and sectoral and individual (industry/region/sex/age) interactions in national systems.

Recent research projects include:

• The analysis of macroeconometric models and their use of data in real time on the project "Decision-Making using Macroeconomic Models", sponsored by various sources;
• The construction and use of a real-time database for Australia on the project "Australian Real-Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real-Time Policy Making", sponsored by the Australian Research Council;
• The development of a simple model of the UK economy on the project "Structural Modelling of the UK Economy within a VAR Framework using Quarterly and Monthly Data", sponsored under an ESRC Programme in Macroeconomic Modelling;
• The analysis of actual and expected output growth in industries across the EU on the project "Expectation Formation, Business Confidence and Output Fluctuations", sponsored by the European Commission.
• The development and application of techniques for the analysis of non-linear dynamic models on an ESRC-sponsored project on the "Econometric Analysis of Non-Linear Dynamic Models with Applications in International Macroeconomics".
• The development of econometric methods for use in the analysis of `data fields' on the project "Issues in the Specification, Estimation and Testing of Models for Complex Datasets", sponsored under an ESRC Initiative in the Analysis of Large and Complex Datasets (ALCD);
• "An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Context of a Multisectoral Model", (Non-technical Summary), sponsored by the ESRC;
• The development of a theoretical framework suitable for the econometric analysis of disaggregated models including expectational variables on an ESRC-sponsored project on "Expectation Formation in Disaggregate Models";

• ARISTIDOU, C., K.C. LEE and K. SHIELDS, 2022. A Meta Model Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination. In: CHUDIK, A., HSIAO, C. and TIMMERMANN, A., eds., Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modelling: (Advances in Econometrics) 43A. Emerald Publishing Limited. 199-215
• ARISTIDOU, C., K.C. LEE and K. SHIELDS, 2022. Fundamentals, Regimes and Exchange Rate Forecasts: Insights from a Meta Exchange Rate Model Journal of International Money and Finance. (In Press.)
• LEE, K.C., MORLEY, J., SHIELDS, K. and TAN, M. S-L., 2020. The Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview with Illustrations of its Use in Analysing Fiscal Policy Economic Record. 96, 87-106
• LEE, K.C., ONG, K. and SHIELDS, K., 2020. Making Fiscal Adjustments Using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries Economic Record.
• ARISTIDOU, C., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2019. Evaluating the Use of Real-Time Data in Forecasting Output Levels and Recessionary Events in the US Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A). 182(1), 131-163
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2018. The Role of Uncertainty, Sentiment and Cross-Country Interactions in G7 Output Dynamics Canadian Journal of Economics. 51(2), 391-418
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2016. Forecasting Global Recessions in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output International Journal of Forecasting. 32(2), 374-390
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2016. Information Rigidities and the News-Adjusted Output Gap Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 70, 1-17
• LEE, K.C., MORLEY, J. and SHIELDS, K., 2015. The Meta Taylor Rule Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 47(1), 73-98
• COSTANTINI, M., DEMETRIADES, P.O., JAMES, G.A. and LEE, K.C., 2013. Financial restraints and private investment: evidence from a nonstationary panel Economic Inquiry. 51(1), 248-259
• ANTONINI, M., LEE, K.C. and PIRES, J., 2013. Public sector debt dynamics: the persistence and sources of shocks to debt in 10 EU countries Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 45(2-3), 277-298
• LEE, K.C., OLEKALNS, N. and SHIELDS, K., 2013. Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods Manchester School. 81(S3), 28-53
• FIELDING, D., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2012. Does One Size Fit All?; Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union Economic Change and Restructuring. 45, 45-70
• LEE, K.C., N. OLEKALNS, K. SHIELDS and Z. WANG, 2012. The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis Economic Record. 88(283), 495-516
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2012. Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach Second Edition. Oxford University Press.
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2011. Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 22, 43-60
• GARRATT, A. and LEE, K., 2010. Investing under model uncertainty: decision based evaluation of exchange rate forecasts in the US, UK and Japan Journal of International Money and Finance. 29(3), 403-422
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., MISE, E. and SHIELDS, K., 2009. Real Time Representations of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Model Uncertainty International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 81-102
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C. and VAHEY, S., 2008. Real Time Probability Forecasts of UK Macro Events National Institute Economic Review. 203, 78-90
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., MISE, E. and SHIELDS, K., 2008. Real-time representations of the output gap Review of Economics and Statistics. 90(4), 792-804
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2007. Overcoming Measurment Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations Economic Record. 83, 303-316
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2006. Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach First Edition. Oxford University Press.
• FIELDING, D., LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2004. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone Journal of African Economies. 13, 488-517
• GLEN, J., LEE, K.C. and SINGH, A., 2003. Corporate Profitability and the Dynamics of Competition in Emerging Markets: A Time Series Analysis Economic Journal. 113(491), 465-484
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2003. A Long Run Structural Macroeconometric Model of the UK Economy Economic Journal. 113(487), 412-455
• GARRATT, A., LEE, K.C., PESARAN, M.H. and SHIN, Y., 2003. Forecast Uncertainty in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy Journal of the American Statistical Association. 98(464), 829-838
• GLEN, J., LEE, K.C. and SINGH, A., 2001. Persistence of Profitability and Competition in Emerging Markets Economic Letters. 72(2), 247-253
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2000. Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations; An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1996 Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 62(4), 463-490
• VAN GARDEREN, K.J., LEE, K.C. and PESARAN, M.H., 2000. Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Non-Linear Models Journal of Econometrics. 95, 285-331
• LEE, K.C. and SHIELDS, K., 2000. Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1998 Manchester School. 68, 75-91