GEP Research Paper 06/27
Winners and Losers in Customs Unions: An Experimental Investigation
David Greenaway and Baboo Nowbutsing
Abstract
We explore a 3 x 3 Competitive Ricardian Model (CRM) in two scenarios multiple import tariffs and a customs union. We fully characterise the equilibrium under both. Starting from a tariff distorted situation, we find that when a customs union is formed there is an increase in trade flows among members; a rise in individual consumption of some goods; a clear terms of trade effect and the existence of trade diversion. Our experimental results support the simulation findings of Venables (2003), who showed that countries which have ‘extreme' comparative advantage in a customs union will generally be more vulnerable to trade diversion.
Issued in September 2006.
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