New research by the University of Nottingham estimates that the care home sector in England was left with up to 19,000 fewer staff following mandatory Covid vaccines being brought in for workers in 2021.
The research, published in the journal Management Science, is the first piece of empirical evidence about the effects of compulsory Covid vaccination for care workers on take-up, staffing and mortality.
The experts found that the UK’s legal requirement for health and social care staff to be vaccinated against Covid-19 resulted in a three-to-four per cent reduction in staffing – equivalent to 14,000 to 19,000 employees in elderly care homes in England.
In the UK, the policy was announced on the 16th June 2021, with the final deadline for all workers needing to be "double-jabbed" by the 11th November 2021 - which has since been revoked (March 2022).
To track its impact, the Nottingham academics analysed weekly data from March 2021 to March 2022, at local authority level on the percentage of elderly care home workers who were unvaccinated, on numbers of care home staff and on Covid-19 related deaths amongst residents.
Throughout this period, but especially at the final November 2021 deadline, the academics found reductions both in the percentage of unvaccinated workers in elderly care homes and in staffing numbers. The percentage of care workers in England who were unvaccinated was about 16 per cent before the policy announcement, dropping to just four per cent after the final implementation in November.
By November 2021 there were between 28,000 and 41,000 fewer unvaccinated staff working in care homes in England than had the mandate not been in place. However, the experts observe that much of this effect came at the expense of staffing.
They estimate the mandate caused a net reduction in staffing in elderly care homes of between 14,000 and 19,000 employees, around four per cent of the total workforce. The academics say that, given that some unvaccinated staff will have been replaced by vaccinated staff, the total number of care workers who left their jobs because of the mandate was almost certainly much larger. They also noted a big increase in reliance on agency workers (rather than directly employed) over the same period.
More recent data on staffing levels suggest that at least some of the impact on staffing persisted even after the mandate was lifted. For example, by the start of June 2022, the total employed in elderly residential care was still about two per cent lower than just before the mandate was announced in the previous year. Although this represented a recovery in staffing numbers from when the mandate was in operation, it was driven almost entirely by agency workers.
Although the English vaccine mandate ended in spring 2022, formal mandates and employer-based restrictions are still common in a number of countries including the US, Canada and Australia.
Professor Paton continued: "The results of our study raise significant questions about the of states or employers insisting on Covid-19 vaccination as a condition of employment in the care sector.”
Notes to editors:
About the University of Nottingham
Ranked 32 in Europe and 16th in the UK by the QS World University Rankings: Europe 2024, the University of Nottingham is a founding member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities. Studying at the University of Nottingham is a life-changing experience, and we pride ourselves on unlocking the potential of our students. We have a pioneering spirit, expressed in the vision of our founder Sir Jesse Boot, which has seen us lead the way in establishing campuses in China and Malaysia - part of a globally connected network of education, research and industrial engagement.
Nottingham was crowned Sports University of the Year by The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024 – the third time it has been given the honour since 2018 – and by the Daily Mail University Guide 2024.
The university is among the best universities in the UK for the strength of our research, positioned seventh for research power in the UK according to REF 2021. The birthplace of discoveries such as MRI and ibuprofen, our innovations transform lives and tackle global problems such as sustainable food supplies, ending modern slavery, developing greener transport, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
The university is a major employer and industry partner - locally and globally - and our graduates are the second most targeted by the UK's top employers, according to The Graduate Market in 2022 report by High Fliers Research.
We lead the Universities for Nottingham initiative, in partnership with Nottingham Trent University, a pioneering collaboration between the city’s two world-class institutions to improve levels of prosperity, opportunity, sustainability, health and wellbeing for residents in the city and region we are proud to call home.
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