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NICEP 2021-01: The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest

 

Abstract

An extensive literature has examined the economic effects of non-violent political instability events. Nonetheless, the issue of whether economies react differently over time to such events remains largely unexplored. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability, we estimate the output effect of 38 regime crises in the period 1970-2011. A crucial factor is whether crises are accompanied by mass civil protest. In the crises accompanied by mass civil protest, there is typically an immediate fall in output which is never recovered in the subsequent five years. In crises unaccompanied by protest, there are usually no significant effects. Furthermore, this paper provides new evidence that regime crises (with and without mass civil protest) have heterogeneous (country-specific) effects on output per capita. 

 

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Authors

Samer Matta, Michael Bleaney and Simon Appleton

Posted on Wednesday 10th February 2021

Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research

University of Nottingham
Law and Social Sciences Building
University Park
Nottingham, NG7 2RD


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