NICEP logo

NICEP 2026-01: The Economic Returns of Firms' Political Connections

 

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic returns to political connections in Brazilian local elections, focusing not only on traditional campaign donations but also on two novel channels: firms that provide goods or services to candidates during campaigns and firms’ owners affiliated with parties within a coalition running for mayor. Employing regression discontinuity and event study methods around close mayoral races, we find that politically connected firms substantially increase both their likelihood of securing procurement contracts and the value of those contracts, though without corresponding gains in employment or wages. This paper contributes to the literature on political connections by documenting the emergence of indirect political connections and public procurement allocation in a context of weak institutional constraints.

 

Download the paper in PDF format

 

Authors

Lucas Braga de Melo and Valdemar Pinho Neto

 

View all the NICEP working papers

 

Posted on Thursday 19th March 2026

Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research

University of Nottingham
Law and Social Sciences Building
University Park
Nottingham, NG7 2RD


telephone: +44 (0)115 84 68135
email: nicep@nottingham.ac.uk