David Sirl

Contact

• workRoom B20 Mathematical Sciences Building
  University Park
  Nottingham
  NG7 2RD
  UK
• work0115 951 3896
• David.Sirl@nottingham.ac.uk

Biography

After completing my undergraduate studies and PhD at the University of Queensland I moved to the UK in 2007 to take up a postdoc at the University of Nottingham. In 2010 I took up a lectureship at Loughborough University and then in 2014 returned to Nottingham in my current position in the School of Mathematical Sciences.

Expertise Summary

I am an applied probabilist, with most of my work being related to biological applications. My specific research interests are as follows:

• Stochastic epidemic models that are sufficiently simple to admit a reasonable level of mathematical analysis but avoid some/many of the classical homogeneity assumptions; mainly in the SIR framework. More particularly, things associated with networks and other structures, vaccination, approximation(s) of one or more phases of an outbreak (in my rough mental approximation there are 5),
• Markov processes on a countable state space with an absorbing state; especially questions surrounding the existence and uniqueness of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions, related exponential convergence rates and numerical approximation of quasi-stationary distributions. (This is the area my PhD was in and while it has been on the backburner for some time I do hope and intend to get back to it more seriously.)

Recent Publications

• BALL, FRANK, BRITTON, TOM, LEUNG, KA YIN and SIRL, DAVID, 2019. A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges. Journal of mathematical biology. 78(6), 1875-1951
• FRANK BALL and DAVID SIRL, 2018. Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure Journal of Mathematical Biology. 76(1-2), 483–530
• LEUNG, KA YIN, BALL, FRANK, SIRL, DAVID and BRITTON, TOM, 2018. Individual preventive social distancing during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE. 15(145),
• IAN JONES and DAVID SIRL, 2017. Peer assessment of mathematical understanding using comparative judgement Nordic Studies in Mathematics Education. 22(4), 147-164

• View all publications

• BALL, FRANK, BRITTON, TOM, LEUNG, KA YIN and SIRL, DAVID, 2019. A stochastic SIR network epidemic model with preventive dropping of edges. Journal of mathematical biology. 78(6), 1875-1951
• FRANK BALL and DAVID SIRL, 2018. Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure Journal of Mathematical Biology. 76(1-2), 483–530
• LEUNG, KA YIN, BALL, FRANK, SIRL, DAVID and BRITTON, TOM, 2018. Individual preventive social distancing during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE. 15(145),
• IAN JONES and DAVID SIRL, 2017. Peer assessment of mathematical understanding using comparative judgement Nordic Studies in Mathematics Education. 22(4), 147-164
• BALL, F.G., SIRL, D.J. and TRAPMAN, J.P., 2014. Epidemics on random intersection graphs Annals of Applied Probability. 24(3), 1081-1128
• BALL, F., BRITTON, T. and SIRL, D., 2013. A network with tunable clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution, and an epidemic thereon Journal of Mathematical Biology. 66(4-5), 979-1019
• BALL, FRANK and SIRL, DAVID, 2013. Acquaintance vaccination in an epidemic on a random graph with specified degree distribution Journal of Applied Probability. 50(4), 1147-1168
• HOUSE, T., ROSS, J.V. and SIRL, D.J., 2013. How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final size calculation Proceedings of the Royal Society A. 469, 20120436
• BALL, F. and SIRL, D., 2012. An SIR epidemic model on a population with random network and household structure, and several types of individuals Advances in Applied Probability. 44(1), 63-86
• BALL, F., BRITTON, T. and SIRL, D., 2011. Household epidemic models with varying infection response Journal of Mathematical Biology. 63(2), 309-337
• BALL, FRANK, SIRL, DAVID and TRAPMAN, PIETER, 2010. Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure. Mathematical Biosciences. 224(2), 53-73
• BALL, F., SIRL, D. and TRAPMAN, P., 2009. Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure Advances in Applied Probability. 41(3), 765-796
• ROSS, J.V., SIRL, D.J., POLLETT, P.K. and POSSINGHAM, H.P., 2008. Metapopulation persistence in a dynamic landscape: more habitat or better stewardship? Ecological Applications. 18, 590-598
• SIRL, D.J., ZHANG, H. and POLLETT, P.K., 2007. Computable bounds for the decay parameter of a birth-death process Journal of Applied Probability. 44, 476-491