Nottingham University Business School
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Han Zhang

MSc in Economics(Finance)

Room: B34 (South Building)
Tel: +44 (0) 115 8466378

Current Status: Writing up
Year of Registration: 2012
Expected Completion Date: /09/2015

Primary Funding Source:
Business School Scholarship

Research Topic:
Commodity Price Behaviour and Emerging Market Economies

Research Details:
The purpose of this research is to identify the main economic fundamentals behind the behavior of commodity price, particularly the recent fluctuation, and to quantify the role of emerging economies. The relevant research issues include but not limit to How much do they contribute to the recent commodity price fluctuation?
How do they change the commodity market situation?
How persistent of the shock they bring about to world commodity prices?
This research will contribute to the discipline in several aspects 1. Traditionally industrial countries are the focus of discussion as they generate the bulk of world demand for primary commodities. Developing countries are always treated as commodity exporters. (see, for instance, Borensztein and Reinhart(1994) )However, things are quite different now. The arrival of China, India and other entrants to the list of important economies forms a great shock to the commodity market. Therefore the role of emerging economies needed to be analyzed in a formal systematic way. 2. From the historical point of view, Europe and Japan experienced similar energy and high chemical development stage between post World War II and 1970s, but the real commodity price trend during this period is downward rather than upward. Thus the comparative economic analysis will help to deepen the understanding about the relationship between economic activity and commodity price. 3. The study of the role of emerging economies in determination of commodity price is important for numerous investors. Since commodities could be viewed as assets as well as goods, adding them to portfolios with stocks and bonds will produce large diversification gains. With the prospects of continued high growth in the emerging economies in the future, relevant analysis will help to grasp the investment opportunity.

Research Supervisor/s: Monica Giulietti, Ye Bai and David Newton

Division: Industrial Economics and Finance

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