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The Taiwan Research Hub has six policy papers annually. The editor of the policy paper series is Dr Chun-yi Lee and the executive editor is Dominika Remzova (PhD researcher at the University of Nottingham and research fellow at Central European Institute of Asia Studies, CEIAS).

The content of the policy papers includes various perspectives on Taiwan. The purpose of these policy papers is to provide constructive suggestions for decision-makers on various global issues related to Taiwan.

Semiconductors: Taiwan’s case of 'Dutch disease'?

Policy paper by Michael Reilly

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global supply chains highlighted the importance to the world of semiconductors, and dependence on Taiwan for their manufacture. In their contemporary strategic economic importance they have been likened to oil in the 1970s and 1980s.

In the late 1970s, The Economist newspaper coined the term ‘Dutch disease’ to describe how the growth of natural gas exports from the Netherlands in the 1960s led to the Dutch currency appreciating, making its manufactured exports more expensive and thereby prompting a decline in manufacturing.

This paper argues that the dominance of the semiconductor industry is having a similar impact on the Taiwanese economy. The difference is that the main symptom of the ‘disease’ is not an over-valued exchange rate, thanks to central bank policymakers who have been effective at managing it, but the ‘crowding out’ of other sectors that the dominance of the ICT industry has created.

The very success of the semiconductor industry has helped to hide these weaknesses and engendered a sense of complacency on the part of policy makers. The Taiwanese government needs to take urgent action for the country’s long-term survival.

Download the policy paper by Michael Reilly (PDF)

The shifting dynamics of Taiwanese politics: How can the US reassure in an age of pushback against the two-party system?

Policy paper by Brian Hioe

Commentators and analysts questioned whether the result of the 2024 Taiwanese presidential elections reflected a significant shift on the part of the Taiwanese voter electorate. Namely, the election results seemed to show that the Taiwanese public is more attentive than ever to domestic political issues and not merely cross-strait issues.

The battering that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took in hanging onto the presidency but failing to maintain control of the Taiwanese legislature, as well as the rise of insurgent political forces such as the third party of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and its presidential candidate of Ko Wen-je were seen as examples of this fact.

Download the policy paper by Brian Hioe (PDF)

Diplomatic machinations: Unraveling the efficacy of China’s economic leverage over Taiwan in Latin America

Policy paper by Anna LoGrande and Benjamin Schwartz

As the United States faces heightened tensions with peer and near-peer adversaries on the global stage, a specific focus on China’s and Taiwan’s economic and political dynamics in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries becomes crucial. Is China’s economic diplomacy in the region strategically aimed at undermining Taiwan’s petering list of loyal recognisers? Are the ramifications of Latin American partnerships with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) triggering policy changes in the United States?

This research re-examines established questions within the context of the contemporary political milieu, utilising analyses from regional specialists and formulating policy recommendations for Washington. The aim is to bolster Taiwan's resistance against China's ongoing regional expansion, which in turn amplifies China's leverage over Taiwan on the global platform.

This study offers new insights into China's alliances with countries such as Panama, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. It examines the declining diplomatic loyalty of Paraguay to Taiwan and assesses the People's Republic of China's impact on altering the political equilibrium in the region. Amidst the rivalry between Taiwan and China for the allegiance of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) states, this paper outlines the following policy recommendations for the United States

Download the policy paper by Anna LoGrande and Benjamin Schwartz (PDF)

Resetting the next stage of Taiwan's economic development amid the US-China geopolitical tensions

Policy paper by Min-Hua Chiang

The evolving US-China relations have played a key role in explaining Taiwan’s economic development over the past few decades.

First, the different political ideologies set the United States and China apart during the Cold War era. To better resist the communist expansion, America needed an economically strong Taiwan to support the colossal military expense against Communist China’s military invasion. Taiwan’s post-war economic development started with US aid and it was boosted further by its enormous exports of final consumption goods to America.

Second, America’s market opening to Chinese goods, following the US-China reconciliation, had turned Taiwan’s dependence from exporting final consumption goods to America to exporting semi-industrial goods to China. Through its massive export-oriented investment in China, Taiwan also helped to fulfil the US policy of integrating China into the global economy.

However, the growing tension between the United States and China is likely to revert the global division of labour based on each country’s comparative advantage. On the one hand, China has been eager to change its role from a downstream assembler to a high-technology provider in the global supply chain network. On the other hand, the United States has great concerns about potential threats to its national security after China’s technology catch-up.

Download the policy paper by Min-Hua Chiang (PDF)